I · Narrative

Tracks what a person believes from what they saw

Gemma 4 31B QAT

Finding:DEGRADES· grade A(research conclusion)

58% correct (301/518)

Tested up to chain length 12, scramble 1.0, pronoun pressure 5, distractor events 20, witness cutoff 0.9

Pass ratesingle rate, no difficulty dial

58%

301/518 scored trials passed · 95% interval 54%–62%

Why it slips

The model answers where the object really is, not where the person believes it is.

Example failure

Trial result: FAIL (one model answer)

FAIL

garage

Open this trial →Open the run it came from →

Evidencewhat this finding rests on

Ground truthDeterministic simulation: the right answer is computed, not judged
StatisticsWilson 95% interval 54%–62%Grade A: strong evidence
Sample size518 scored trials in total
Fresh-seed confirmationNot run yet
ReplicationNot run yet

Raw evidenceruns and trials

Runs behind this row
- camp-belief-gemma4qat-001 175 trials
- camp-breaking_point-gemma4qat-001 68 trials
- camp-full_map-gemma4qat-001/belief 155 trials
- camp-full_map-gemma4qat-001/breaking_point 56 trials
- camp-trivial-belief-gemma4qat-001 24 trials
- camp-trivial-belief-gemma4qat-002 40 trials
Every belief-tracking trial for this model → broader than this row
The example failure, in full →

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