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I · Narrative

Tracks where things actually are

Gemma 3 27B

Finding:DEGRADES· grade B(research conclusion)

57% correct (26/46)

Tested up to chain length 30, distractor events 2

Pass ratesingle rate, no difficulty dial
57%

26/46 scored trials passed · 95% interval 42%–70%

breaks ≤ 30%holds if interval reaches 95%0%50%100%
Why it slips

The model gives a wrong answer that matches no known shortcut.

in 100% of failures (20 failures)

Example failure
Trial result: FAIL (one model answer)
FAIL
West wing
Open this trial →Open the run it came from →
Evidencewhat this finding rests on
  • Ground truthDeterministic simulation: the right answer is computed, not judged
  • StatisticsWilson 95% interval 42%–70%Grade B: moderate evidence
  • Sample size46 scored trials in total
  • Fresh-seed confirmationNot run yet
  • ReplicationNot run yet
Raw evidenceruns and trials

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